{"id":1334,"date":"2026-03-24T04:10:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T04:10:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jpkrcash.com\/?p=1334"},"modified":"2026-03-24T04:10:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T04:10:39","slug":"%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e8%ad%a6%e5%a0%b1%ef%bc%9a%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e9%ab%98%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e6%ad%a3%e6%88%90%e7%82%ba%e6%97%a5%e5%9c%93%e8%88%87%e9%9f%93%e5%85%83%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jpkrcash.com\/en\/%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e9%80%9a%e8%86%a8%e8%ad%a6%e5%a0%b1%ef%bc%9a%e7%82%ba%e4%bd%95%e9%ab%98%e6%b2%b9%e5%83%b9%e6%ad%a3%e6%88%90%e7%82%ba%e6%97%a5%e5%9c%93%e8%88%87%e9%9f%93%e5%85%83%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"\u80fd\u6e90\u901a\u81a8\u8b66\u5831\uff1a\u70ba\u4f55\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u6b63\u6210\u70ba\u65e5\u5713\u8207\u97d3\u5143\u7684\u300c\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u6bba\u624b\u300d\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>\u524d\u8a00\uff1a<\/strong><br>\u9032\u5165 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u7d93\u6b77\u4e00\u5834\u300c\u96b1\u5f62\u9707\u76ea\u300d\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u5e03\u862d\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\uff08Brent Crude\uff09\u50f9\u683c\u5728 3 \u6708\u7a81\u7834\u6bcf\u6876 107\u7f8e\u5143\u5927\u95dc\uff0c\u4e9e\u6d32\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u2014\u2014\u65e5\u672c\u8207\u97d3\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u8868\u73fe\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u70ba\u7126\u9ede\u3002\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u6703\u76f4\u63a5\u5de6\u53f3\u4f60\u53e3\u888b\u88e1\u65e5\u5713\u8207\u97d3\u5143\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff1f\u9019\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u908f\u8f2f\u9060\u6bd4\u60f3\u50cf\u4e2d\u8907\u96dc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">&#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><strong>\u80fd\u6e90\u8207\u532f\u7387\u7684\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\uff1a\u8f38\u5165\u578b\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u908f\u8f2f<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64da&nbsp;<strong>\u570b\u969b\u80fd\u6e90\u7e3d\u7f72 (IEA)<\/strong>&nbsp;3 \u6708\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u6708\u5831\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u4e2d\u6771\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u8abf\u6574\u53ca\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u6c42\u8d85\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6cb9\u50f9\u5df2\u9032\u5165\u300c\u65b0\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6642\u4ee3\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c0d\u65bc\u65e5\u672c\u8207\u97d3\u570b\u9019\u985e\u80fd\u6e90\u81ea\u7d66\u7387\u6975\u4f4e\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u9ad8\u6cb9\u50f9\u6703\u89f8\u767c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9023\u9396\u53cd\u61c9\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u64f4\u5927<\/strong>\uff1a\u570b\u5bb6\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\u66f4\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u8cfc\u8cb7\u539f\u6cb9\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5916\u532f\u6d41\u51fa\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8f38\u5165\u578b\u901a\u81a8 (Imported Inflation)<\/strong>\uff1a\u71c3\u6599\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u63a8\u9ad8\u96fb\u8cbb\u8207\u7269\u6d41\u8cbb\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u4fb5\u8755\u4f01\u696d\u5229\u6f64\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u5e73\u50f9 (PPP) \u504f\u79fb<\/strong>\uff1a<strong>\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54 (IMF)<\/strong>\u00a0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7576\u672c\u5e63\u8cb6\u503c\u901f\u5ea6\u8d85\u904e\u85aa\u8cc7\u589e\u9577\u6642\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u5c07\u51fa\u73fe\u840e\u7e2e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><strong>\u6a5f\u69cb\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u65e5\u5713\u8207\u97d3\u5143\u7684 \u672c\u5e74\u5ea6\u8d70\u52e2\u9810\u5224<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3b\u6d41\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u5c0d\u7576\u524d\u5f62\u52e2\u6301\u8b39\u614e\u614b\u5ea6\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229 (Morgan Stanley)<\/strong>\u00a0\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u4e9e\u592a\u532f\u7387\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff1a\u5118\u7ba1\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\uff08BoJ\uff09\u5df2\u9010\u6b65\u9000\u51fa\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u53d7\u9650\u65bc\u9ad8\u984d\u80fd\u6e90\u9032\u53e3\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u65e5\u5713\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u5728 145-150 \u5340\u9593\u9707\u76ea\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u9ad8\u76db (Goldman Sachs)<\/strong>\u00a0\u5247\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u97d3\u5143\uff08KRW\uff09\u53d7\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u51fa\u53e3\u5fa9\u7526\u652f\u6490\uff0c\u4f46\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u82e5\u9577\u671f\u7dad\u6301\u5728 $100 \u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u97d3\u570b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u964d\u606f\u7a7a\u9593\u5c07\u88ab\u56b4\u91cd\u58d3\u7e2e\uff0c\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97\u97d3\u5143\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f37\u6642\u986f\u5f97\u683c\u5916\u8106\u5f31\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><strong>\u79d1\u6280\u91d1\u878d\uff1a\u907f\u96aa\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u5178\u7bc4\u8f49\u79fb<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u300c\u6cd5\u5e63\u5c0d\u6cd5\u5e63\u300d\u63db\u532f\u5df2\u7121\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u898f\u907f\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<strong>\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c (World Bank)<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5728\u5176\u95dc\u65bc\u6578\u4f4d\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u5c08\u984c\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u8de8\u5883\u8cbf\u6613\u5546\u958b\u59cb\u5c0b\u6c42\u300c\u7269\u7406\u9694\u96e2\u300d\u8207\u300c\u6578\u4f4d\u907f\u96aa\u300d\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u50f9\u503c\u9328\u5b9a<\/strong>\uff1a\u5229\u7528\u639b\u9264\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u4f5c\u70ba\u7de9\u885d\uff0c\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u62b5\u79a6\u55ae\u4e00\u4e9e\u5e63\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u6a5f\u671f\u9593\u7684\u5287\u70c8\u8df3\u6c34\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u5347\u7d1a<\/strong>\uff1a\u70ba\u4e86\u61c9\u5c0d\u65e5\u76ca\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u6d17\u9322\u8207\u8cc7\u7522\u5b89\u5168\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u79d1\u6280\u9818\u57df\u6b63\u5f15\u5165\u5982\u00a0<strong>\u300c\u591a\u91cd\u7269\u7406\u9a57\u8b49\u78bc\u300d<\/strong>\u00a0\u7b49\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u6578\u4f4d\u8cc7\u7522\u5728\u514c\u63db\u70ba\u5be6\u9ad4\u8ca8\u5e63\u6642\u7684\u79c1\u5bc6\u6027\u8207\u7cbe\u78ba\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>\u7d50\u8a9e\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u9707\u76ea\u4e2d\u4fdd\u8b77\u8cc7\u7522\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2026 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